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Prediction for CME (2026-05-16T16:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-05-16T16:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46214/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is observed as significant dimming and an EUV wave centered around N30W13, and field line movement, in SDO AIA 171/193 starting around 2026-05-16T15:18Z, associated with an M1.9 flare peaking at 2026-05-16T16:12Z from AR 14436 (N22W17). Arrival may be seen near 2026-05-19T06:10Z as a relatively minor arrival signature characterized by rapid magnetic field increase from 3.5 to 7.5 nT seen at ACE/DSCOVR/IMAP with decrease in density and relatively stable temperature profiles with velocity increase from 500 km/s to 650 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-05-19T06:31Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-19T10:00Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-05-16T1848Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 1510
Longitude (deg): 1W
Latitude (deg): 30N
Half-angular width (deg): 30

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: There are at least 2 parts to this CME, though with much slower speeds (~500km/s compared to ~1500km/s). Adjusted this to the total CME bulb which is quite fibrous at the edges.

Lead Time: 49.65 hour(s)
Difference: -3.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-05-17T04:52Z

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